CenSES Energy demand projections towards 2050 - Reference path
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As opposed to most other European countries, Norway has no official, public energy projection. We have therefore developed an energy projection towards 2050, with openness to data and detailed discussions of parameters and resulting energy demand. It is not a prediction, but a projection, with assumptions based on discussions among the CenSES partners. The objective is to have a platform for further analyses within CenSES and other interested users, where assumptions can be openly presented. The intention is to develop alternative paths based on future discussions, as a way of improving the knowledge of how to achieve a sustainable future energy system. The analysis gives an understanding of the high uncertainties about future energy demand. Four scenarios are presented, all presenting a possible future, and the total energy use differs with about 65 TWh in 2050. The electricity consumption differs with approximately 45 TWh from the lowest to the highest use in the four scenarios. Main parameters varying in the scenarios are the levels of industry activity and energy efficiency implementation as presented in Table 1. The reference scenario is based on an industry activity at the present level and minor implementation of energy efficiency. thodology is used where the demand of energy services is calculated first. This is input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway that calculates the energy consumption. The calculated use of total energy and different energy carriers highly depend on the assumptions used in the analyses. The demand calculations are based on the development of drivers and indicators of each demand sector. A major driver is the population projection that is based on the medium national growth of Statistics Norway 2012. The assumptions are discussed with CenSES-partners, and the authors have full responsibility for the results and conclusions presented in this paper. n the reference path, final energy consumption increases by 30 TWh to about 250 TWh in 2050. The increased electricity consumption is 21 TWh to 134 TWh in 2050. Implementation of profitable energy efficiency measures can reduce the final energy consumption by 4 TWh in total while the electricity use increase by 7 TWh (-2% and +6% respectively). In total, profitable energy efficiency measures including heat pumps can reduce the energy consumption in 2050 by about 23 TWh. Illustrations of some of these scenarios are included in this paper as “stories” describing literary how possible futures might become.